Understanding Confidence Levels (50%, 80%, 90%, 99%) | Monte Carlo Forecasting
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Video Description
When you run a Monte Carlo forecast, you get multiple dates with different confidence levels. 50%, 80%, 90%, 99%. What do these mean? And which one should you use?
This video breaks down each confidence level, when to use it, and why there's no 100%.
What you'll learn:
- 50% = coin flip (optimistic, not reliable)
- 80% = good for planning (1-in-5 chance of miss)
- 90% = making commitments (when the boss asks)
- 99% = critical deadlines (regulatory, contractual)
- Why 100% doesn't exist in the real world
Key insight: Which confidence level you use depends on the stakes. Low stakes? 50-80%. High stakes? 90%. Life or death? 99%. Higher confidence = later date. That's the tradeoff.
Works with Azure DevOps and GitHub.
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Tags
#FlowMetrics #MonteCarlo #Forecasting #Probability #Agile #ProjectManagement #AzureDevOps #GitHub
0:00 Understanding Confidence Levels 0:12 First, What's Monte Carlo? 0:37 The Distribution of Outcomes 0:59 The Four Levels of Confidence 2:29 Which One Do I Use? 2:44 www.honestcheetah.com 3:01 Thanks for Watching
Video Info
- Duration: 3:05
- Published: January 23, 2026
