When Will It Be Done? | Monte Carlo Forecasting Explained
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Video Description
"When will it be done?" sounds like a simple question. It's not. You're never really predicting one item - you're predicting a pile. And that changes everything.
This video shows you why individual item estimates fail at scale (chained dependencies), and how Monte Carlo simulation solves the problem by forecasting the whole pile together.
What you'll learn:
- The chained dependencies problem (75% x 75% x 75%... = disaster)
- Why 10 items at 75% confidence = only 5.6% combined
- How Monte Carlo simulates 1,000 possible futures
- Why backlog order is essential for accurate forecasts
- The difference between guessing and probability
Key insight: You can't forecast individual items and add them up. The math doesn't work. You have to forecast the pile.
Works with Azure DevOps and GitHub.
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Tags
#FlowMetrics #MonteCarlo #Forecasting #NoEstimates #Agile #ProjectManagement #AzureDevOps #GitHub
0:00 When Will It Be Done? 0:20 The Chained Dependencies Problem 0:58 Monte Carlo: Forecast the Pile 1:24 Backlog Order Matters 1:45 www.honestcheetah.com 2:00 Thanks for Watching
Video Info
- Duration: 2:04
- Published: January 23, 2026
